old news but fivethirtyeight has Biden winning.
i trust them. not sure what other experts i should trust. any help folks?
They had Hilary winning too
They had Hilary winning too
I dont get this line of thought
So if 538 said Trump had a 90% chance of winning, would that make you think Biden was going to win?
And they gave Trump like a 30-35% chance lmao
i think this morning they said trump has a chance at winning just as much as a chance that it rains in downtown LA
old news but fivethirtyeight has Biden winning.
i trust them. not sure what other experts i should trust. any help folks?
RCP had their no toss up map last year at 272 for Clinton and 266 for Drumph. This year it’s been anywhere from 350-368 for Biden. It tells a lot.
Texas being a tie is still f***ing wild to me
National average has tightened to 6.9 (RCP) today so far but don’t forget that they include Rasmussen.
This is kinda misleading
How so? They did have her winning with like a 99% chance or some s***
How so? They did have her winning with like a 99% chance or some s***
I think 538 had her at like 66% right before election day
someone give me a reason i should believe polls this year? not trying to be sarcastic just truly wondering why, and if these polls may simply just be bad at taking into account trumps fan base
someone give me a reason i should believe polls this year? not trying to be sarcastic just truly wondering why, and if these polls may simply just be bad at taking into account trumps fan base
For one, in 2016 they really only polled college educated people and the majority of them were white. This year, the polls have expanded to include more people especially those who are not college educated. Also, there is an emphasis on the margin of error being around 3% depending on the poll. That was about how wrong the polls were in 2016.
Even so, the polling was much closer overall in 2016.